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Classic meteorologic standard MOS
Benefits of a MSwr-MOS standard system |
Our MOS forecasts have reached a quality level which is equal to the
quality level of good professional forecasters. Only a few of very
good forecasters are able to improve them. Thus, Meteo Service is in a
position to provide state-of-the-art forecasts for a variety of
forecast elements for thousands of places all over the world -
extremely fast for extremely low cost.
Optimum Decision Making based on MSwr-MOS |
According to Bayessian Decision Making Theory one needs the following
for optimum decision making in situations of non-perfect forecasts:
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The probabilities for the occurence/non-occurence of an event
(e.g. late frost in spring)
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The individual cost/loss ratio (e.g. the quotient 'costs for
preventing the crops from damage by frost' divided by 'damage of
frost if not prevented').
If the probability under 1 exceeds the cost/loss ratio then it is
better to prevent, otherwise not.
In earlier decades meteorology was not able to provide the
probabilities in required quantity and quality. This has changed with
(MSwr-) MOS. The decision maker is asked to define his costs and
losses depending on the decision taken and MOS provides the necessary
probabilities. It will be our pleasure to built a decision
optimization system for your decision making
problem together with you.
MOS forecasts are produced for individual places. However, they can be
produced also for any place in between the individual places - on
regular grids or points of special interest. The way ist *not*
interpolation of forecasts but interpolation of MOS coefficients. They
are much more representative. Representativity of two places is the
key of the interpolation system. Representativity depends on
geographical distance, height above sea, valley/mountain position of
the places and land/see constellation.
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