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Thunderstorm prediction with lightning MOS systems

Short descritpion

Today lightning detection data play an important role in general thunderstorm prediction. Be it the warning system by national weather services, be it the general aviation or be it the power supplying industry, all of them need very accurate predictions of the occurrence of thunderstorms. With lightning MOS systems, Meteo Service has a tool for producing this kind of product. A first system was developed in 2001 and was implemented at the Deutscher Wetterdienst for operational service. Up to today this system is used for warning decision making and for the aviation.

Example of a forecast set of DWD lightning MOS of May 19th of 2003

(click on the maps for a larger version)

Left image: Lightning forecast by BMOS run from 12:45 UTC for 14:00 UTC, predictand "Isolated1", that is probability for at least one lightning stroke within 27x27 km and 15 minutes. Right image: Observed lightning strokes by Siemens BliDS between 13 and 14 UTC.

Left image: Lightning forecast by BMOS run from 8:00 UTC for 14:00 UTC, predictand "Occasional", that is probability for occasional lightning within a larger area and one hour. Right image: Observed lightning strokes by Siemens BliDS between 13 and 14 UTC.

Left image: Lightning forecast by BMOS run from 8:00 UTC for 20:00 UTC, predictand "Occasional&Quot;, that is probability for at least one lightning stroke within a larger area and one hour. Right image: Observed lightning strokes by Siemens BliDS between 19 and 20 UTC.