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MOS on moving objects

		Short descritpion Cell-MOS MOS is also capable of producing excellent forecasts based on moving objects like ships or thunderstorm cells. The latter one is a promising approach to apply MOS on thunderstorm forecasting and warning decision process. The Cell-MOS provides the possibility to produce statistically optimized forecasts of the track and the individual properties of single thunderstorm cells. The goal of this development and research is providing a thunderstorm warning system that can provide individual information for counties and cities/small locations. As a result the meteorologist working at the warning desk is supported by guidances for every current thunderstorm cell. Therefore the warning decisions can be made much more detailed in time and region.

Example of a forecast set of a cell MOS prototype of June 23th of 2004

(click on the maps for a larger version)

Guidance overview generated by the Cell-MOS prototype "GuST", 23rd June 2004, 18/19 UTC, containing detected cells and forecast tracks (blue).

Forecast of an individual cell generated by CellMOS prototype "GuST, 23rd June 2004, 18 UTC.

Thunderstorm warning for the city of Haltern and individual cell information, same time as figure above. These are automatically generated texts produced by the prototype based on the forecasts.

			   
*******************************************************************************
SEVERE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FOR Haltern
ISSUED at 18.00 UTC 25.06.2006
*******************************************************************************
 
VALID from 18.00 until 18.15
 
A severe thunderstorm was located about   7 km N of Haltern,
reaching Haltern at about 18.00 UTC
 
This thunderstorm is capable of producing...
 
...HEAVY PRECIPITATION OF ABOUT  30 L/QM WITHIN SHORT TIME
...LARGE HAIL OF ABOUT   3 CM IN DIAMETER
...STRONG GUSTS OF ABOUT 100 KM/H
...only occasional lightning
 
REMEMBER:
 
Heavy rainfalls of  30 l/qm can cause local flash floods with enhanced
threat in lower areas of hilly terrain.
Large Hail up to  3 cm in diameter can brake windows, damage cars
Strong wind gusts of 100 km/h can uproot trees and lift loose items.

If you are located within the warned area... secure loose items firmly
and seek shelter immediately when the storm aproaches. Stay away from
windows. If you are not able to seek shelter avoid open terrain and
stay away from tall objects like trees or power lines. Beware of
flying objects.
=
*******************************************************************************

*******************************************************************************
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CELL INFORMATION
ISSUED at 18.00 UTC 25.06.2006
ID 200606251800    3 51.8365  7.3336
NEAREST RADAR STATION ess
*******************************************************************************
 
VALID immediately
 
A severe thunderstorm has been detected in county
Coesfeld...
 
...near Dernekamp
   or about 11 km S of Nottuln
   or about 23 km N of Waltrop
 
...moving to the N with 50 km/h
 
This severe thunderstorm is capable of producing
 
...HEAVY PRECIPITATION OF ABOUT  25 L/QM WITHIN SHORT TIME
...LARGE HAIL OF ABOUT   2 CM IN DIAMETER
...STRONG GUSTS OF ABOUT  90 KM/H
...only occasional lightning
 
The following counties may be affected with this storm within two hours:
 
Coesfeld                           at 18.00 UTC with PROB  94
Steinfurt                          at 18.30 UTC with PROB  79
Emsland                            at 19.05 UTC with PROB  58
Borken                             at 18.35 UTC with PROB  47
Grafschaft Bentheim                at 19.00 UTC with PROB  35
 
And the following locations may be affected within two hours:
 
Nordhorn                           at 19.20 UTC with PROB   9
Coesfeld                           at 18.25 UTC with PROB   3
Dülmen                             at 18.00 UTC with PROB  75
Lingen                             at 19.30 UTC with PROB  37
Meppen                             at 19.50 UTC with PROB  25
Steinfurt                          at 18.45 UTC with PROB  73
Rheine                             at 19.00 UTC with PROB  48
...
Haltern                            at 18.40 UTC with PROB  48
...
 
Forecast data
fp    lat     lon      c  dd  ff   dde ffe  pcp hal gst lgt
****  ******* *******  *  *** ***  *** ***  *** *** *** ***
+000  51.8365  7.3336  4  198  50    0   0   25   2  90   0
+005  51.8567  7.3358  4  184  27    8   8   25   2 115 158
+010  51.8800  7.3384  4  184  31   16  16   27   4 106 123
+015  51.9159  7.3405  4  182  47   24  24   26   3 114 135
+020  51.9506  7.3424  4  182  46   32  32   27   4 108 152
+025  51.9723  7.3443  4  183  29   40  40   27   2 109 156
+030  52.0250  7.3458  4  181  70   48  48   26   3 107 138
+035  52.0632  7.3479  4  182  51   56  56   23   3 117 153
+040  52.0979  7.3539  4  186  46   64  64   24   3 115 133
+045  52.1524  7.3554  4  181  72   72  72   24   4 113 131
+050  52.1930  7.3612  5  185  54   80  80   28   5 138 174
+055  52.2403  7.3639  5  182  63   88  88   32   4 137 167
+060  52.2960  7.3655  4  181  74   96  96   24   2 120 132
+065  52.3303  7.3684  3  183  45  104 104   18   2 103  86
+070  52.3631  7.3722  3  184  43  112 112   19   2 107 114
+075  52.3914  7.3779  3  187  38  120 120   22   1 108 115
+080  52.4293  7.3844  2  186  50  128 128   15   1  92  64
+085  52.4718  7.3893  2  184  56  136 136   15   2  79  52
+090  52.4956  7.3913  1  183  31  144 144   10   0  73   4
+095  52.5217  7.3981  1  189  35  152 152   11   0  63  29
+100  52.5485  7.4043  1  188  36  160 160   12   0  64  16
+105  52.5983  7.4086  1  183  66  168 168   11   1  79  16
+110  52.6422  7.4137  1  184  58  176 176   10   0  67   4
+115  52.6841  7.4173  1  183  56  184 184    8   0  63  14
+120  52.7364  7.4233  1  184  70  192 192   12   0  60   9
****  ******* *******  *  *** ***  *** ***  *** *** *** ***
=
*******************************************************************************
			   

Left figure: Radar reflectivity, loop. Right figure: Radar reflectivity.

Left figure: Radar doppler velocity. right figure: Radar echotops 28 dBZ.